Friday, March 07, 2008

Almost there

Next weekend is selection sunday. This weekend games represent the last regular season games and typically "Senior night". If your team has a lot of good seniors, this could work in your favor. If your team is made up of freshmen and sophomores and the seniors are the fifth year guys riding the bench all year, this could pose a little bit of a momentum killer as they start the game and kill their team's offense out of the gate. Nothing to change your strategy on, but if you have a good senior team like Xavier, this could represent a nice opportunity.

Take these three games straight and put them together in a parlay and enjoy the rest of your evening.

LOUISVILLE +4 @ Georgetown
Like I said earlier in the week, I hope they lose as they are getting too much publicity now. That being said, they won't. The Hoyas will turn the ball over 20+ times in the game and lose.

ARIZONA STATE -11 @ Oregon state
Will Oregon State become the first team in Pac 10 history to lose every conference game? Yes! This is a really important game for Arizona state -11.

CAL +15 @ Ucla
Cal has not quit, even though they should. UCLA does not care about this game as they have clinched first place in the Pac 10. A win by the bears would not surprise me. In fact, let's call it, Bears win!

Other thoughts;
Syracuse -1 is at home and fighting for their lives. I like them to win this game vs. Marquette who has a tough time scoring against tough zone defenses. Kansas -6 is playing great basketball right now; perfect timing. They should roll over Texas A&M who are quickly becoming one of the most frustrating teams to bet on/or against. I like North Carolina +2 to beat Duke. UNC is playing great again and Lawson is back now and playing effectively.


Saturday, Early Picks

Lines are based on the early Las Vegas line that just came out at 2:00pm PST.

You will notice a trend here of many dogs. This will continue through the tournament. As we get to crunch time things continue to get closer and closer. The first 4-5 games are my favorite, and it is no surprise they are mostly dogs.

Louisville +4 vs Georgetown. Cardinals are playing great, this is a championship game that will be very close.

Miami +3.5 vs Florida St. Miami is making a great closing run for the tournament. They will win this game out-right in a season closing rivalry game. The crowd will pull a high school move and be chanting "Just like Football" by the end of the game!
Duke -2 vs UNC. I don't like Duke, but this is a good match up for them against UNC, and they have too many perimeter options. The home court makes a big difference, and I think the Tar Heels have a greater amount of Hate for Duke, and they often cannot control their emotions. The Blue Devils just know how to weasel a win. Just imagine how much you would want to kick Paulus in the ding-ding when he was slapping the floor in front of you. This is 10 generations of floor slappers just irking the Tar Heels!

South Florida +7 vs Notre Dame. Irish are good, but not great on the Road, they don’t need to win big. This is a tough place to play, take the points.

UAB +15 vs Memphis. Memphis has no need to win big here, and this game is huge for UAB.

Washington St -9 vs Washington. Cougars will end the season on a high note and will then compete for the conference tournament championship next week. Huskies are just about buried.

Arizona St -11 vs Oregon St. Beavers are stuffed, cooked, and have quit after that huge loss on Thursday. Sun Devils get healthy and happy with a big win.

Good Gaming
B. Anthony

Friday Games Early

Just Winners:

Drake -9 vs Indiana St. Back to back games for Sycamores and just too much Drake.

William & Mary -3 vs Georgia St. They will get one more good win before their season is over.

Good Gaming.
B. Anthony

I will back with more afternoon picks and a Saturday Lineup

Did you see the end of the UCLA/Stanford game?

Depending on which side you were on, this was either the best bet that ever came in or one of the worst losses you have ever endured. Most lines were at -/+8.5.

Stanford was in control for most of the game and had a 5 point lead with :50 seconds left. UCLA came back and ultimately tied the game. Lawrence Hill drove down and made a floater with 7 seconds left in regulation to give stanford the lead. Collison then drove down the court and put up a shot that was "blocked" by Hill but they called a foul. They showed several replays of the block and it did not look like a foul. Collison made both and sent the game to OT, but clearly Stanford should have won this game in regulation.

But it gets better (or worse) depending on your point of view. Nobody scored for the first two minutes of OT. Finally UCLA made a bucket and with about a minute left, it was a 2 point game with UCLA leading. After a flagrant foul was called on Stanford (which probably wasn't the right call), UCLA had a 6 point lead and stanford was in "deep 3" mode and then fouling after they missed. UCLA got two garbage buckets which pushed the lead to 10 with 12 seconds left. Stanford came down firing threes and missing but got the offensive board. Mitch Johnson finally shot an open 10 footer for a bucket to cut the lead to 8 with 1.2 seconds left.

Here is where it gets interesting. Love in-bounded the ball to Collison, and the clock did not start. Collison got it at half court and jogged to the hoop expecting the clock to sound, which it did not. He kept going and ultimately rolled it off the rim for the cover at the buzzer.

Absolutely amazing if you had UCLA and devastating if you had Stanford.


Thursday, March 06, 2008

LL Cool J

Pac--10 should have some interesting games, not a lot of locks.


UCLA -8.5 vs Stanford Twinkies. Lay the lumber. Last time UCLA had a chance to clinch the laid it on WSU. They clinch tonight and show that they are #1. After Duke beats NC this weekend, UCLA will enter tournament as the top seed!

Michigan St. -2 vs Illinois. Spartans are making a push for a top 2-3 seed. They finally are playing together again and are primed for a deep tournament run!

Uconn -4.5 vs Providence. I agree with the revenge factor!!!

B. Anthony


I typically view quite a few sites to get previews of the games, run through all sorts of statistical information and look at upcoming schedules before picking my games. I tend to over-analyze some of these games sometimes, when simply throwing something up on the wall and seeing what sticks. So today, I will do that and just limit myself to one game of "over-analysis."

CONNECTICUT -5 @ Providence
Providence came into UConn's home court and beat them several months back. This started the great run for the Huskies. UConn is a far better team, will have revenge on their mind, and Providence is a mess right now.

ARIZONA -12 @ Oregon state
The wildcats have been an elusive team for me to pick. Fortunately for us, they are playing Oregon state, who is really bad. The beavers will have no answer for Bayliss and Budinger.

ST. JOSEPH'S +2 vs. Xavier
This is the game I am struggling with. Xavier has stepped up to every challenge this year plowing through their league and a terrific non conference schedule. But they don't have a ton to play for here. They are firmly entrenched as a 2 or 3 seed and need to focus on getting Drew Lavender healthy again, who is still nursing a sore ankle. This is such a huge game for St. Joseph's who will be playing their last game at the Fieldhouse.

I see a letdown game coming from Clemson playing @ Ga Tech +2, who likely wrapped up an NCAA bid by stealing one on the road at Maryland.

Pac 10 thoughts
ASU +5.5 @ Oregon
USC -8.5 vs. Cal
UCLA -8.5 vs. Stanford


Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Winning During the Week

The Truth has consistently been successful during the week, only to give it away on the busy Saturday, Sunday schedule. Let's keep that in mind as we progress through the week, we may have to keep the weekend simple.

Today's Winners.

Boston College +8.5 vs Miami. Tyreese Rice is still on fire, he will keep this game close.

Notre Dame -15 vs St. Johns. Let's keep betting against this lousy team. Plus the Irish are great at home and shoot the ball great against a half ass defensive effort.

Indiana -8.5 vs Minnesota. This is time for the Hoosiers to get healthy against a weak opponent.

Vanderbilt -4 vs Mississippi St. Good home team will win, and shoots free throws well enough to cover.

Two Team Conf. USA parlay

Houston -7.5 vs Tulsa
UAB -7.5 vs Central Florida

Look for these two teams to make a statement in Home games.
If you are desperate for action, I would take Memphis in the first half as well. They are not happy that they didn't get their #1 ranking back. Memphis, -11 or so in the first half will be a cover.

Good Gaming,
B. Anthony

Injury bug

I will admit it. I was wrong about Kentucky on Sunday. I really felt like they would fall apart and crumble at Tennessee. The start of the game went how I predicted, as UT got out to a large lead, but the bad part is that Kentucky stayed in the game. They even came back and covered the first half line. The Volunteers would surely get a tongue lashing from Pearl and come out and dominate in the second half, right? No. They barely won and Kentucky had a good look in the corner from Crawford to tie the game and send us to OT, but he missed it. So, yes, I was wrong. It happens often. But let's not walk away from this wounded, left for dead team in Kentucky.

T-Bone I am talking to you!

Everything I said about them on Sunday holds true for today, but far greater. There is no way, they can continue to compete and play at the level they played at Tennessee without Patterson.

SOUTH CAROLINA -3 vs. Kentucky
I like the new coach and I admire how hard Kentucky is playing. With that said, things unravel for the wildcats who must now focus on the NIT.

VANDERBILT -3.5 vs. Mississippi state
There are quite a few teams that are really really good at home and very average on the road. Vanderbilt and it's 18-0 record at home are really really good when playing in Tennessee. Not the best recipe for success in the NCAA tournament though, where every game is a road game.

OKLAHOMA STATE -4.5 vs. Oklahoma
More walking wounded. Blake Griffin, the big stud frosh on OU has gone under the knife again in preparation for the post season. Smart move for OU and good news for OSU who has been playing better of late.


Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Not all bounce back games are created equal

As soon as Texas lost to Texas Tech last week, I checked out the schedule of both teams to see who their next games were against. Tech was traveling to KU and got punished. We all saw that coming, bet on it and prospered. Well, I don't feel the same way about Texas tonite. I think they will win and come out strong (I think the first half line is better than the full game line), but I fear a second half lapse of intensity and a back door cover for a Nebraska team, which has been playing quite well of late. I am leaving both Texas and Kent state off of my selections tonite. They both win though, so if either is down at half, I don't have to tell you to chase them.

Tonite's plays;

FLORIDA STATE +16 @ North Carolina
UNC is focused on getting Lawson healthy and the big showdown with Duke on Saturday. Toney Douglas told Andy Katz that they will "shock the world." A totally over-used cliché. I don't think "the world" cares about FSU basketball. However, I do think the Seminoles will compete and play hard, which is all I really care about.

KANSAS STATE -16.5 vs. Colorado
Speaking of bounce back games, this is one that I trust. KSU is a different team at home. They are in a slump right now, losing 5 of their last 6 games, so this game means a lot to them and they punish a bad Colorado team.

OHIO STATE -2.5 vs. Purdue
The buckeyes are a desperate team. Purdue has not won in Columbus since Feb 7, 1998.



22,754 minutes until Tournament Thursday's first game! I bet you were all counting that number down as well! If you actually just started counting, you would only have to count to 1.36 Million and games would be starting.

OK, I am a little too excited about this, but this is getting to be underdog season, when lines are tough, and the few dogs you can find have the best value. League seasons will end with a few more blow-outs, but Championship week will be full of dog covers and the first 48 game weekend will definitely be dog heavy!

Now, on to standard Tuesday night picks. Keeping it Simple

Kent -6 vs Miami OH. Another team looking to make-up for a bad road loss.
KState -16 vs Colorado. Classic bounceback. They need a big win

Utah -17 vs Colorado St. This CSU team is terrible and likely they have quit on the season. Utah at home wins big on a senior night!

B. Anthony

Monday, March 03, 2008

We are just warming up

Tournament time will be here soon. So most of this past few months has just been preparation. I agree with what Money is saying on Louisville, and think they will continue to roll until the league tourney. Pitino will have them bow out early in the Big East Tourney, so they won't be tired for the Big Dance. They will win 3 games, but they lose in a regional final. Not a bad play for Money!

My new favorite dark horse teams are Michigan State and Washington St. who are now way under the radar and will get you good value to go a long way. Memphis and UCLA will both be in the final four, and Derrick Rose will be on the all tournament team even if his team doesn't cut down the nets.


I agree on Kansas -19.5 vs TTech.

I disagree on St. Mary's. I'll take Portland +12 at home vs St. Mary's.

And I will also take Santa Clara +16 at Gonzaga. Bulldogs got their big win this weekend, and they will be flat early against an outclassed but scrappy Bronco squad.

Good Gaming,
B. Anthony

Louisville needs to lose

My preseason pick of Louisville to win it all does not look so foolish now. They are playing as well as anyone right now. However, they are becoming the trendy "under the radar" pick. I sure would like the Cardinals to lose this week at Georgetown. This would do two things; pump up the Hoyas and bring back Louisville to the crowd. I will say it again, the Hoyas are very ordinary. They will likely get a #2 seed, but they won't go any further than the sweet 16.

I also hate to say it, but The Drake is getting too much publicity now. They are over-exposed and everyone's darling now. Money is not worried, because we still have The Truth's other cinderellas that will make an impact, such as South Alabama, Kent state (bad loss to Bowling Green, but we forgive them), Davidson and St. Mary's.

Tonite's plays

WEST VIRGINIA -5.5 vs. Pitt
This is a game that West Va must win. They are a different animal at home and I think Pitt may not come in with the same intensity as they stole one against Syracuse on Saturday.

KANSAS -19.5 vs. Texas Tech
Speaking of "under the radar", is it possible that KU is flying underneath it? Yes. They are no longer being discussed as a number 1 seed (which can still change) and I think this is helping them to play better relaxed basketball. Major letdown by Tech after their home upset victory over Texas.

SAINT MARY'S -12.5 @ Portland
SMC had better win this game, as they have losses in 2 of their last 3 games. Portland is horrible even though they have a Ravio and a Sikma on their team.


Sunday, March 02, 2008

You should have seen this coming

There are games that are obvious, teams coming off a bad loss or an emotional win, and it is up to us to decide if the line is set appropriately or not. I was all set to take Arkansas at home to beat Vanderbilt. I thought the line would be about 1-2, but it was 6 points. Yikes. Arkansas won by 5. Good call staying off it. Alternatively, Texas Tech, who is a very average team in their own right got the snot beaten out of them in their last game. New coach Pat Knight punished them durning the week (closed the locker room - dressed in the hallways) and they were prepared and fought Texas and beat them.

It won't be a big surprise when you see Money bet against Texas Tech when they travel to Kansas and boast about the UT Longhorns when they host Nebraska next Tuesday.

So it should be no surprise to see my pick for today;

TENNESSEE -14 vs. Kentucky
This game has it all. Kentucky beat Tenn in Lexington last time. UT is looking for their first outright SEC championship in 41 years. UT is coming off their loss to Vanderbilt. Patrick Patterson is injured and out for the year. Shall I go on?

Kentucky will get killed. Without Patterson they have no post presence. Bradley and Crawford will have to go for 60 combined, just to stay competitive, and that won't happen.

Take the first half too.

Add one more

UCLA -5 @ Arizona
Arizona has two guys that can beat you. The Bruins defense will see to it that they won't have big days.