Friday, February 09, 2007

Saturday games

KENTUCKY +2.5 vs. Florida

It is dangerous betting against Florida, but afterall, this is my middle name. Kentucky will be looking to make a statment here at home.

MARQUETTE +7.5 @ Georgetown

One minute I am telling you to watch out for the Hoyas, the next minute I am telling you to bet against them. I still like the Hoyas, but Marquette is too talented (especially on the road where they are 5-1) to be getting this many points.

KANSAS STATE -17.5 vs. Colorado
Look for K State to bounce back after the beating they took from Kansas who will be playing a Colorado team still living off their upset victory over Oklahoma state.

On Sunday, take Duke, who won't lose 4 in row and Georgia Tech in the rematch of our national title game in 2004.


This Saturday our theme will be revenge. We are starting to know these teams. Witness B. Anthony and Money both having 4-0 days this week. But more importantly, these teams know more about themselves, and how good, or not good they actually are.

Let's get to the games.

UCLA at West Virginia, Does anyone remember UCLA getting embarrassed at home last year in the 1st half vs West Virginia? They came back to lose by only ten or so, but they have not forgotten this 20 minute massacre at Pauley Pavilion. They will play with focus and know that beating a Big East team on the road will solidify a #1 seed.

UCLA -3 @ West Virginia

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt- Tennessee is getting healthy and was not happy about the smack down they received from Vandy a few weeks back. Look for intensity from Lofton and Pearl as Tennessee gets their revenge.

TENNESSEE -4.5 vs. Vanderbilt

The Missouri/Kansas game is always close for some reason. Missouri will be playing at home and Kansas is due to lay an egg. These teams hate each other even if Quinn Snyder, aka, the alien, is no longer on the sideline.

MISSOURI +6 vs. Kansas

Wright State vs Butler- Huge game in the Horizon. I am going with the home team, and against conventional wisdom. Butler winning by 42 was not a good tuneup for a competitive game. Take Wright State getting the points.

WRIGHT STATE +4 vs. Butler

Thursday, February 08, 2007

This one is obvious

I would love to come back today and post another four winners, but after looking at today’s games, mostly Pac 10 heavy, I can’t do this in good conscience. I think Cal is reeling and just waiting for the season to end, so they can fire Ben Braun and woo Mike Montgomery. Washington, on the other hand is having their own difficulty in winning games as well. Washington should win this game, and probably will cover, but this line is too high at -8. It should be more like -4.5. There is no way you take the Bears, but you have to walk away from the Huskies at this price.

Stanford will have its hands full playing Washington State. This is a big game for both teams. The line is set right, and I expect this game to be close and end up right around 6 points, most likely ending up with a made free throw at the end by WSU and a missed 3 point shot at the end of the game by Goods.

But, who wants that kind of drama? Not me. My heart can’t take games like that. I need an obvious choice; a game that I bet on and never have to worry about it from the tip-off. Well folks, you are in luck. We have one tonite.

DEPAUL -1 vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame started off the season great, scoring at will on anybody going 11-1, with their lone loss to Butler. Then we had a little trouble. The ND floor leader got into a little marijuana trouble and was suspended from the team.

“Thanks for the dope, Carl!”

Since then, the Irish have gone 7-4, with all four of those losses, coming on the road. Additionally, Depaul is 9-2 at home. This is not a lay-up, this is a slam dunk!

New name, same great results.

B. Anthony is here to continue the great college basketball knowledge. Susan is gone, but her tradition of picking winners lives on! Like my namesake, Carmelo Anthony, who showed he could dominate college basketball by going to the hoop, I dedicate today's teams and picks to teams who score close to the basket.

Coaches always harp on getting easy shots, and getting to the basket, but players, and some new age commentators, continue to tout the rewards of the 3 point shot. Now don't get me wrong, I love to hoist the 3, and love it even more when my team hits a late 3 to cover, but these teams are seldom national champions, or teams that cover on a regular basis. Take the ball to the hoop, score in the paint or at the free-throw line, and you will be a top 10 team.

For example, I don't like Pitt, but they keep winning, and actually drilling teams, by just getting it in the paint. They started this years ago with Ben Howland, and Jamie Dixon is continuing the trend. UCLA has the style out west, and even though Aaron Afflalo is a pure shooter, he still scores a majority of his points on the free-throw line and going to the basket! Below are my top 5 teams at scoring in the paint. It is no surprise that these are highly ranked teams.

Florida- Noah and Horford, will constantly pound the glass, get put backs, fast breaks and easy buckets. Brewer is at his best going to the hoop in the open court. Best team in the country is only getting better.

Washington State- They work the ball around until a good, close shot avails itself. Tony Bennett, (did not leave his heart in SF) but he did leave the run and gun style when he was in diapers. His dad pounded it into his brain that each possession matters, and this is a very efficient offensive team that will change the way Pac-10 basketball is played and viewed. He and Howland are a big reason the Pac-10 will have 6 dancers this year and will be known as a top 3 Conference every year, for years to come!

Pitt- As previously noted, they just win. Aaron Gray is ugly, but his hands are soft and his guards are not afraid to lob it in to him, or mix in a few pass fakes to find him on the block. When was the last time you looked at a top 20 ranking and didn't see the name of this team? Not pretty, but effective!

North Carolina- Hansborough also fits the mold of not pretty, but damn effective. He is the Hustleberg incarnate! And, did you notice how often Lawson is driving to the hoop for the scoop shot, or lefty lay-up. When he is going to the hoop, we get the cover. ( He sealed that deal last night). And while we are looking at that, let's not forget the lefty dunks, lay-ups, and 6 foot bank shots that you get every night from Brandan Wright! Oh by the way, he shoots 64.3% from the field!!!!

Memphis- They are not a traditional post up team, but Dorsey is a monster, and their whole team attacks the rim off the dribble. You want to see big, look at the size of these 3 players.

Hashim Bailey
Kareem Cooper
Joey Dorsey

Calipari did some idea swapping with Vance Wallberg (new coach at Pepperdine) and now runs an offense that spreads the court for constant penetration. Wallberg dominated California JC ball with this style, and Calipari has the athletes to make it work. How hard can it be to get college kids to buy into the idea of penetration? They think about it 24/7 why not use it in hoops!?

Wisconsin leads a host of other teams, but the 5 above will be teams you can count on succeeding under pressure, because they will be near the basket.

On that note, I will feature some of these teams in today's picks.

Memphis -9 @ Uab; Enough said. This league is a one trick pony, and only Central Florida has an outside chance of joining Memphis in the dance.

Washington State -5 vs. Stanford; Revenge on their mind, they will out execute Stanford, make their free-throws, and get the Lopez Twinkies in foul trouble.

VCU- 6.5 vs. George Mason; They handled George Mason on the road by 13, why are they only giving up 6.5 at home? Can you say 2006 Final four. Get over the hype, VCU is hands-down the best team in this league. They will solidify this tonight.

Oh, I better have a dog in here!

Arizona State +15 @ Oregon; As I stated previously, Oregon is overrated and on the down slide. They don't defend, and don't really go in the paint. They will win this game, but not without giving up some points to a plucky Sun Devils squad. 88-79 Ducks, take the points!


B. Anthony

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Here come the Hoyas

Money predicted Georgetown to make the Final Four in the preseason. They started off being ranked #8 in the AP poll and then fell off the map. Now, they are storming back into contention, winning 14 of their last 16 games and Money is all over them. They have proven they can win on the road, going 6-2 thus far. Today they take on a Louisville team that is peppered with talented players, but also loaded with a bunch of question marks as well. Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green will be too much for the Cardinals.

GEORGETOWN +1 @ Louisville

I agree with Susan B, and will take Clemson -4. They have lost 3 in a row, but they were tough games in tough places to play (@ Duke and @ Ga Tech). Now they come back home and take on an overachieving team in Florida State, who sports a 3-5 record on the road.

CLEMSON -4 vs. Florida State

I predicted greatness for Texas A&M (one of my picks for the Final Four) and we all know about their week they had; beating Kansas at Lawrence and pounding Texas at home. I also predicted that Kansas finally pulls it all together is the last team standing. The turnaround for this team will start tonite as they pound Kansas state, with freshman point guard, Sherron Collins, leading the way.

KANSAS -10.5 vs. Kansas state.

Oh, give me the Tarheels -4 over Duke too. This is not your mother’s Duke. Average team with no go-to guy. I predict first round exit in the tournament.


I Love this Game!

College basketball is just full of excitement, and who doesn't love the North Carolina v Duke week. I can't wait to call the world famous D. Brown, and hear his North Carolinian Native wife cursing Duke in the background. This level of hatred is why we love college hoops. The 3 year-old daughter and infant will surely always shriek "Go Heeeels"

On that note, Susan B. is looking for a big day with many games. Understand, there are 45+ games on the docket tonight, so 8 games, all with good reasons to play, are not too many! I will give you some categories and times.

Early games, (who are these teams):

UCF-5 (Central Florida, 2nd place team in Conference USA, just coming off a recent embarrassment by Memphis.) They are on the road at a terrible East Carolina, 300 in the country out of 316. Just collect and be happy someone found this game. By rankings and history, the spread here according to B and Sagarin should be 11!

Old Dominion-11.5, again another good team playing the worst team in their league. You will remember that VCU beat Georgia State by 30 on Saturday to give us another win.

Granddaddy of them all:

UNC -4 vs Dukies. Just lay the points and watch for the blow-out at Cameron. I know this never happens, but tell me you want to bet on Duke. They have 1 player who would crack the rotation at North Carolina, and even he (Josh McRoberts) might not be a starter at UNC.

While you are waiting for UNC game or a Parlay:

Kansas St. +10.5 at Kansas- I am a believer in Huggins, I am sure there is a clause in his contract that gives him another 100K if they cover against Kansas!

Clemson -4 vs Florida St.
Hangover game for Florida St. after big win at Duke, and Clemson has revenge on their mind

West Virginia +2.5 at home vs Pitt. I am not a big believer in Pitt, and West Virginia is a great home team that will bury 11+ 3-pointers to win this game.

Late Games to really drill the book:

UNLV -17 vs TCU. This is a bounce back game for UNLV and what do you think the kids from Texas are thinking about while in Vegas!

UCLA-9.5 against USC. My original thought was USC here, but UCLA is going to flex their muscles. The Pac-10 is good, but UCLA is the class of this league. They have Shipp back, and they just beat Oregon by double digits and they are the same team as USC. Screw the rivalry angle and the drunk kicker, and Mozart for that matter. This line should be 14. UCLA 87-70!

Out. Susan B.

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Road kill

Money and Susan have been spending a lot of time in the last couple of weeks discussing final four teams, and it is fair to assume that this will change as the weeks go by. What is important to note during this time period is which teams are winning on the road. There seems to be a group of 5-7 teams that are very good and are capable of winning the national title; Florida, UCLA, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Texas A&M and Kansas. This list can surely be debated. After these teams, there is a drop-off where you could conceivably create a group of about 40 teams that are capable of knocking each other off. The big difference between teams in the top 7 vs. the next 40 is their ability to win on the road.

Granted, teams in the top 7 will still lose on the road (Wisconsin at Indiana) or even at home (Kansas losing to Texas A&M) but these events seem to be to a lesser extent than the second tier. Knowing this, I present a nice option for tonite to bet a home underdog.

WYOMING +3.5 vs. byu
Wyoming will be ready for this game as their starters will be hungry (and embarrassed) after sitting out their last game versus Air Force. BYU (3-5 on the road) is coming of a big win at home against UNLV, but will struggle on the road in Laramie.

Rivalry Week!

Espn will tout this all week, so let's jump on the bandwagon! Susan B. started with a "Big Monday", and if you read early in the morning there was another winner, Indiana State, but my love affair with Northern Iowa caused me to pull that game mid-day.

The tournament seedings are starting to round into place, I am very confident with the selections I made, and think the only possible change is that Texas A&M and Memphis may switch places! We are watching for teams that can, and cannot compete on the road, so this will find us some winners.

All 3 t.v games are games that I have handicapped, so beware, these are usually tough to win. However, at least one of them is a top play. Let's get to the winners.

Maryland- 4.5. A very good home team that needs to stay on track to make the tournament. DJ Strawberry will defend Singletary well enough. 82-73. 3***

Tennessee -5 vs LSU. It is hard to imagine that the LSU team is so bad, but they are. Tennessee is also a great home team, 11-0 this season. Bruce Pearl will wear an ugly jacket and LSU won't play well until the SEC tourney. Tennessee will roll 80-66. 3***

Big Rivalry game, not sure anyone outside Philly cares:
St. Joseph's + 12. This game seems like a no-brainer, why can't Villanova kill a weak team from the Atlantic 10, because the bald genius Martelli will have some gimmick defense and make his team believe this game is huge. Take the points. 74-68, Villanova. 2**

Games to watch, and bet if you are a junkie like me!

NC State + 10. How can this line be so big after they just beat UNC? That is just the way it is. If I had to venture a bet here, I still take the points. I don't think they let down that much. It is the classic let down game, but I am giving Sidney Lowe more credit than that. NC State will keep it with in double digits! 1*

Ohio State-13. Like the rest of the nation, I am still enamored with this team and Greg Oden. Tommy Amaker is on his way out at Michigan, and another humiliating road defeat will solidify his demise! Take Ohio State to roll, 85-60. The line here should be closer to 16, and points in the paint will be very difficult for a soft Michigan team. 1*


Susan B.

Monday, February 05, 2007

No more distractions

I agree with Susan. Thank goodness that football is now over. We can now completely commit ourselves to this fabulous time of year! The Superbowl was horrific as usual. While the commercials were not great, they were still more entertaining than the game. I really don’t understand how/why a company like Prudential would do a superbowl commercial. I can not imagine that the money they spend for a 30 second add can do anything for their bottom line. Some smaller companies probably gain some business with the visibility, like, but this whole superbowl commercial thing has really gotten out of hand.

There have been some games over the last couple of weeks that both Susan and Money agree on. Our success in these games has been high. We both like Texas tonite getting the points. The Aggies are a great team, and will frustrate Kevin Durant and co. but they will suffer a letdown after their big win at Lawrence against Kansas last week. I disagree on the point total, given by Susan. This will be a low scoring game. Both teams played tough games on Saturday and the defense and pace by A&M will keep this game in the 60s. Texas A&M has only given up over 65 points in three games. This is not an endorsement for the under though; I hate playing totals. I do love taking the points though.

TEXAS +7.5 @ Texas A&M

Basketball Only

Now that the ugly football game is over, and we don't have to try to figure out why Dungy won't take an easy 3 points to make everyone happy, we can move on to college hoops.

First, Susan B would like to apologize for not being more clear on her picks. Saturday we were 4-4, so no one won money if you played all 8 games. I had been touting NC State for 3 days, and should have made it clear that this was the best pick of the day. I will try to make that note going forward and will put stars next to every play so you can determine where to lay the real money.

Light schedule tonight, but I see some trends where you can make money.

Wright State-11. Wisconsin Milwaukee is on the back end of a road trip. They got drilled by Butler on Saturday and will get drilled tonight. Wright State also has revenge on their mind, losing at Wis-Mil a few weeks ago. 3*** 77-59

Santa Clara-8. They are playing well, they score inside, and they actually do care. USF is never going to be any good. I like SCU to make a big push for the Dance and challenge a cocky Gonzaga team. 72-59. 3***

Games to play because they are on T.V. ( This is my lean, and it makes the game more enjoyable) These are 1* or less plays.

Syracuse + 4 at Connecticut. Both really bad teams, neither one will deserve to win, or know how to win, so it will be close. Take the points

Texas + 7.5 vs Texas A&M. This will be a great game. Texas A&M is a better team, and will likely win the game, but there are many angles on this game.
1. Texas needs a bounce back game after a horrible shooting performance and home loss to Kansas State.
2. A&M just had their biggest win of the season, a let down is imminent.

The confidence A&M has, and the game that Acie Law IV has, will give A&M the victory, but not by more than 8pts. 84-80, A&M.

Loyola Marymount + 12 against Gonzaga. See the article on Defending a 10 point lead. Gonzaga still doesn't realize that teams get up to play them, and the other team is on ESPN for the only time during the year. Take the points and enjoy the back door cover when they make an uncontested 3 or lay-up at the buzzer to lose by 9.

(Look forward to UNC getting some serious revenge on Duke, I have no idea on the line, but I will lay 10 points right now) It will likely be on 3 because they are at Cameron.

Good Luck, Susan B.