Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Road kill

Money and Susan have been spending a lot of time in the last couple of weeks discussing final four teams, and it is fair to assume that this will change as the weeks go by. What is important to note during this time period is which teams are winning on the road. There seems to be a group of 5-7 teams that are very good and are capable of winning the national title; Florida, UCLA, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Texas A&M and Kansas. This list can surely be debated. After these teams, there is a drop-off where you could conceivably create a group of about 40 teams that are capable of knocking each other off. The big difference between teams in the top 7 vs. the next 40 is their ability to win on the road.

Granted, teams in the top 7 will still lose on the road (Wisconsin at Indiana) or even at home (Kansas losing to Texas A&M) but these events seem to be to a lesser extent than the second tier. Knowing this, I present a nice option for tonite to bet a home underdog.

WYOMING +3.5 vs. byu
Wyoming will be ready for this game as their starters will be hungry (and embarrassed) after sitting out their last game versus Air Force. BYU (3-5 on the road) is coming of a big win at home against UNLV, but will struggle on the road in Laramie.


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