Saturday, March 10, 2007

Big Four

These four games are traditionally a preview of the final four teams, and this year is no different. This week Money and I will pick every game in the first round before we head to Vegas for some hands on work. Florida is starting to flex its muscles, and UNC is doing the same. I only believe one of these teams is for real.

Sunday's Winners:

NC State +15vs UNC 10am. As I have said, this team continues to cover and win. They have earned a birth, and they will do their best to make Jim Valvano proud. They may not win, but they will definitely cover this line. If I am going to be bold, I will tell you it will likely be under as well. NC State plays old school hoops. Final score.... 73-66 UNC. (NC State and Under 147.5)

Florida -9 vs Arkansas 10am. Florida continues to roll. They are in the midst of a run they will take them to the final four. Arkansas has made a run to save the job of coach Stan Heath. This one is going to be a big win for Florida. 80-60.

Watch these games carefully, because there will only be 5 or 6 more games in the college careers of Oden and Durant. These two super human college basketball players are both awesome and a breath of fresh air. You won't see a lot of self promotion or chest thumping, but these guys can play and they hate to lose. They will battle in their conference championship games, and lead their teams on a run in the tournament. Durant is the better player, but he cannot overcome the terrible coaching of Rick Barnes. Oden, will dominate the paint for the next 12 years, but only about 3 more weeks in college.

Texas +7 vs Kansas noon. This will be an epic battle. Texas has to shoot great and Durant needs 39 for his team to win. He will get 36, but they will still cover in a game that goes up and down. These teams will have plenty of energy to play offense, but not enough to play defense. The over is the best play here, but with no defense being played, I like the dog to hit a few late shots and keep it with in 5. Finals Score, 83-80 Kansas wins. (Play Texas and the over 145)

Ohio State -2 vs Wisconsin 12:30. As earlier stated, Ohio State will be led by Oden. It would be nice to believe we will see a lot of big Greg, but it won't happen. This program is counting on a final four run because Oden will only be here once. This will be a slugfest, and when it comes down to it, no one will score but OSU will pull it off. Ugly but effective, kind of like Oden's beard and intimidation. Take the Under 120 with OSU. 54-48

B. Anthony
95-74-3 ytd (Wsu loss added, it wasn't over yet when I last posted)

I love Halftime bets

I will admit I am a sucker for a good halftime bet. But what makes for a Money halftime bet? The following criteria need to be met:

1) A big favorite is losing, by at least half (preferably more) than the original line.
2) The underdog is shooting at least above 45-50% for the first half
3) The favorite is shooting around 30% or less
4) The star player has not played well or scored much

If you can hit all of these, (even 3 of 4 is still good) you have yourself a Money halftime play. Such was the case last night for Texas who was favored by 9 points and down 18 at half. Texas was shooting under 30%, Baylor over 50%, and Durant had scored 5 points, on 1-13 shooting.

In the end, Texas came back and won, Durant ultimately scored 29 points, and both teams ended up shooting around 37%. The halftime line was -9.5. Easy Money.

Don’t be afraid to take second half plays that equal or are close to the line for big favorites who can score. Keep an eye on those halftime plays!

BOSTON COLLEGE +11 vs. North Carolina 10:30am
North Carolina is a young and immature team. Don’t hitch your wagon to them.

PURDUE +7 vs. Ohio state 10:30am
Ugly bet, but this is what makes it so good.

ILLINOIS +6.5 Wisconsin 1pm
Home court advantage will even this game out. Wisconsin will feel the pain of big man Butch’s absence in this game.

TEXAS -4 vs. Oklahoma state 1:20pm
The longhorns played bad yesterday. They won’t make the same mistake again today.

BYU +5 @ unlv 4pm
This is a home game for the Rebels, but BYU will still come out on top.

UTAH STATE +4.5 vs. New Mexico state 6pm
Utah State has been kind to Money.

Friday, March 09, 2007

Saturday Fun

B. Anthony still waiting on the 2nd half of WSU and looking forward to seeing USC fall on their face.

Early Leans for tomorrow.

Memphis -16.5 vs Houston. They will keep rolling, and the lines will keep coming down.

NC State +5.5 vs Va Tech. Wolf Pack has been very good ATS for a while.

Kansas -8.5 vs Kansas State. Just the best team in the country getting better.

BC +11 vs North Carolina. I still think this is too many points. Hansborough will continue to struggle and BC has good experience.

B. Anthony
94-70-3 ytd (including afternoon leans from Friday)

Picks for today

B. Anthony has highlighted some great games today. Money really likes Florida State and will ride these guys throughout the ACC tournament. Kansas and Texas A&M are great plays as well. Here are some additional game.

Mississippi state +4 vs. Kentucky 10am
Means much more to Ole’ Miss

Utah state +7.5 vs. Nevada 5pm
This will be a close game. Nevada is not going to blow out anyone else from here on out.

Oregon -6 vs. cal 6pm
Nice victory by Cal is erased in blowout today.

Pitt -3 vs. Louisville 6:20 pm
Louisville offense is not consistent enough. Their tired legs from double OT and thumping at Pitt in last game won’t help either.

Friday Focus

B. Anthony got awfully excited yesterday and found himself picking and following every game. Actually, 25 out of the 45 available, were watched carefully (14-9-2 if you want to know). I am working on limiting my exposure today and helping you all continue to win money. Another solid day, but let's get on to what yesterday tells us about the NCAA tournament.

1. Anything can happen, if Cal can beat UCLA and Louisville can blow a 17 point lead and still get the double OT blowout.

2. These tournament don't really mean that much. I think coaches know that 3-4 tough games in a row will tire their team out. If Florida runs through the SEC tourney, they really are the best team in the country, like we have said all year. If not, Big Baby will be dancing again as he leads an improbable run for LSU into the tournament and beyond.

Well, how about some winners?

Favorite Play

WSU pick vs USC. I had not yet seen a line here when I picked this, but now that it is even, I really like it. This Cougar team is just a very solid team that wins, and they will win this tournament. (8:20pm PST)

Morning Games

Florida State +11 vs UNC. Hansborough will be out of sorts,beccause of the broken nose. Thornton will go for 40 points, because he is that good. This will be close for most of the game. Take the points. (9:00am PST)

Kansas -11 vs Oklahoma. This will be a route. A rested team that is trending towards the overall #1 seed in the tournament. Watch for the highlight reel. (9:30am PST)

Mid-Morning and Mid-Day

Boston College -6 vs Miami Florida. The Hurricanes shot their wad yesterday. Boston College has some good experienced players and they will get it done early, often, and late in this game to win by double digits. (11:20am PST)

Texas A&M -8 vs Oklahoma State. This is just a mismatch. Oklahoma State can not win this game and likely they will roll over and play dead after a futile effort for the first 25 minutes! (4:00pm PST)

Added Game, Line is moving

LSU -3 vs Mississippi. Everyone loves Big Baby, and for good reason. He will get another 25 points and 15 boards tonight in a win. This line was -1 when I first saw it, and is moving. Take the Tigers. (6:45pm PST)

We will be back with a post later in the day for the evening games, this will be a good start.

Possible leans for the evening (George Washington -3, Oregon-5, Virginia Tech -8) Wait for the next post as things may change.

B. Anthony
(90-66-3 ytd)

Thursday, March 08, 2007

A little Extra

B. Anthony just cannot stop with 5 picks. I picked 24 of the 45 games that I liked the most. So far I am 5-3-1 on those picks, not great, but not bad either.

The following games were not included in the first post, but some of the early trends I have seen today lead me to play the following:

UNLV -13 vs Utah. This game is in Vegas and is simply a mismatch for the Rebels. They will bring the excitement needed to get a route. Enjoy the favorite.

Washington St.- 2.5 vs Washington. Another very good team playing against a team with hopes. Washington has had a disappointing season, and didn't win any game of significance away from home. It would be a nice story for them to compete here, but it won't happen. Defense, execution, smart play, wins here, and wins comfortably.

Auburn +4 vs Georgia. They just always compete and cover for me. Love the Tigers.

San Diego St. -4.5 vs Colorado St. Too many athletes on the SDSU team, and a lot of illegal money always follows Steve Fischer. These kids know this. Another 10+ point win for the Aztecs.

B. Anthony

No time to chat today, just winners

FLORIDA STATE pk vs Clemson
I love this game

AUBURN +4 vs. Georgia
The Tigers are playing well now, Georgia is not

SAN DIEGO STATE – 4.5 vs. Colorado state
This should be an easy victory for the Aztecs

Goods is back and this game means more to the Cardinal

XAVIER -10 vs. Dayton
Dayton will be limping into this game

MIAMI OH pk vs. Ohio
Sleeper mid major pick

ARIZONA -2 vs. Oregon
It’s tournament time, so Lute will have these guys ready to go

We are close enough

The new theory on the street is that once you are with in a week of your departure date to Vegas, you can start gambling from home, and you aren't breaking any of your previously unbreakable rules. I mean, we might as well be in Vegas. Next week, when I will be sitting in front of a TV for 48 straight hours, running back and forth from the Sportsbook Line and the hotel room to check stats on the laptop to make halftime bets, I will be spending about as much time thinking about hoops as I am now!

Today is really the beginning of chaos. There are so many games on the docket today that are lined and ready for us. (45 to be exact) Realize that next week their will be 16 games on Thursday and we will bet all 16 of them. So we are showing great restraint when we only pick 5-8 games out of 45. Plus, how do you expect that average male to get through the first part of the work day from 9am-2pm with out betting the Big East and ACC tourney.?

On to the winners:

Florida State Pick vs Clemson. Al Thorton, best player on the court, make it simple. Plus, 9am game!

Villanova +5 vs Georgetown. Okay, Scottie Reynolds is good, this 'Nova team has a lot of experience, and they are now used to MSG at 12noon. This is a good first half play as well if you are greedy. Georgetown will wake up in the 2nd half, but this game will be close. Take the 5!

Louisville -3.5 vs West Virginia. Rick Pitino, Genius. Team is peaking, big run in both tourney's is inevitable!

NC State +9.5 vs Duke. Rivalry game, Duke is missing Henderson, soon to be their best player. NC State will slow the tempo and both teams will foul a lot. Take the points and enjoy cheering against Duke.

Blow-out Special

Memphis -21 vs Marshall. My crush on this team continues. They have only burned me once. Watch the highlight reel for Dorsey ripping off the rim. "Send it in, Jerome!"

Many, Many others. I am showing ridiculous restraint. Plan on a follow up afternoon post.

B. Anthony
(85-64-1 ytd) Bounce back day

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Money plays for the evening

Both games played earlier in the season resulted in a lower scoring margin than this line. Cal is getting too much credit for being a mediocre team. The winning team’s season will mercilessly end the next day vs. UCLA.

NORTHERN ARIZONA +2 vs. Weber State
The Lumberjacks can score and should be motivated to secure a bid as last year’s conference final loss should still be fresh in their minds.

THURSDAY MORNING – Don’t miss out on this early morning gem

FLORIDA STATE +1.5 vs. Clemson
Toney Douglas returns from a fractured hand to run the offense for the Seminoles. This is a different team with Douglas running the point, and they will be looking to show off this new and improved team to the committee.

Madison Square Garden!

Nothing, I mean nothing, beats the Big East tournament kicking off at 9:00 AM PST and starting the nations down spiral of productivity. They have estimated that ten's of millions of dollars in productivity are lost during this March run. That is only the tip of the iceberg. B. Anthony is focusing on some underdogs today. With two major mismatches. The goal is to keep producing winners, but not get in the habit of playing every game. Money and I will make an effort to post again in the afternoon if new games come up.

On to the winners:

DePaul+ 4.5 vs Villanova: Simply too many points. This game is early, and you can basically call this a 20 minute game as the first half will be nerves and a feeling out period. Nova is battle tested, and will likely advance, but with a freshman as their leading scorer, I cannot count on the cover. Take the points. ( not just because it is first game of the day) (Money is on board with this game as well)

Marquette -6 vs St. John's. This game is not until later in the day, but the line is moving up and may be at 7 or 8 by game time. St. John's should be a 10 point dog, but the Madison Square Garden factor, and the fact that 50% of the gamblers in the United States are in The Bronx have kept this line low. St. John's sucks! Their best player is out, so maybe they played inspired for 8 minutes, but they lose by double digits. If you decide to watch this ugly game, expect missed free-throws and air balled 3-pointers by this bad team from St. Johns. Route! (see game against Louisville and Duke as examples of this.)

Providence +3 vs West Virginia. Providence has a great history at the Garden and West Virginia is reeling. The last time I checked, West Virginia lost all their good players from last years team. That have been doing it with mirrors for a while. Providence has been a favorite at tournament time since Billy Donovan led them to the final four 20+ years ago. Look for Providence to make a run in this tournament and really make it hard on the committee.

Games for later in the day:

Northern Arizona +3 vs Weber State. This will be down to the wire, and Northern Arizona has been my Big Sky pick all year. They will win this game outright and dance!

ASU + 6.5 vs Washington. This is the classic let down game for Washington. Any game not played in Seattle is a road game for Washington. This team is 1-10 away from home. Any people that think this team has a tournament run in them will be mistaken. This is the type of team that not only reads their newspaper articles, but cuts them out and looks back at them when they go to bed at night. The word is, Spencer Hawes' mom has 3200 pages of press clippings for little Spency. He didn't sleep at all last night as he flipped through them!

One more game if you like blowouts:

Tulsa -11 vs East Carolina. If you want to bet against a horrible team begging for the season to end, here it is. This East Carolina team has lost by double digits a dozen times this year, let's make it a baker's dozen

B. Anthony
(83-60-1 ytd)

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Who does it mean more for?

We have seen a number of trends the last few weeks, and Money has been doing his best to play these trends. The first trend is answering the question of which team wants the game more. This sounds like an obvious question, but emotion is such a huge thing in the college game, that it can turn a close game into a blowout. UCLA had clinched the PAC 10 title and a likely number 1 seed in the tournament when they went up to visit the Huskies in Washington. This meant nothing to UCLA and everything to Washington, as they try and keep their slim hopes alive. Washington was getting 4 points. They won the game by 10, never trailing.

My other favorite betting tool, is taking the home underdog. Very few teams have shown the capability to win road games, and in doing so, gives us a good perspective of how a team might fare in the tournament. In fact some of the name with prestigious road records may surprise you; Southern Illinois 10-4, Nevada 10-2, Winthrop 12-3, VCU 11-2, Davidson 11-3, Drexel 13-5 to name a few.

As we approach the end of the regular season, some of these betting aids will be coming to an end, as there will no longer be any “home” teams and once the tournament begins, I would have to think that it means everything to everyone.

With that, there are still a few more opportunities to test this theory out, including tonite.

WRIGHT STATE +1 vs. Butler
Butler should be in the tournament. Wright state will need to win this game to get in. They are playing at home, so the opportunity is there for the taking. This will be a close game, but as B predicted, Wright state will win.

PRINCETON +7.5 vs. Penn
I hate to go against B. Anthony, but I am forced to. Penn has already clinched a birth to the tournament and has absolutely nothing to play for. While Princeton is still running off their reputation, this is a home game and a chance to take down the league champion. I would not be surprised to see the Penn mascot suit up and play, in an effort to keep the team healthy.

Ugly Hoops is still Beautiful

Tuesday's calendar of games would not get most people excited, but we are not most people. Butler visiting Wright state will be a superb test of basketball. The rest of the docket features mostly mediocre basketball teams with one major mismatch. Let's not waste too much time, but just get to the winners before Vegas reads my post and moves all the lines.

B. Anthony's winners:

Penn -7.5 vs Princeton. The double digit victories for Penn will continue tonight. Vegas continues to overvalue a terrible Princeton team on reputation alone. They, Princeton, will pass the ball around for 35 seconds and then get back on defense when the shot clock goes off. Prediction: 60-45, this will be ugly, but a win.

Wright St. +1 vs Butler. Butler had a great run early, but they don't need this win at Wright State, and the home crowd will carry the Raiders to victory and an uncommon tournament birth. Prediction: 72-69 Wright St. (can you say, "storm the floor?")

All Ugly game:

TCU +4.5 vs New Mexico. There is some confusion here in Vegas. This is a play-in game for the tournament between the eighth and ninth seeded teams. So, who cares, they will both get killed against BYU if they win. The problem is, this game should be a pick. They split the season series, and New Mexico is led by the selfish JR Giddens. He may go for 30, but it will be on 28 shot attempts, 8 turnovers and 1 assist. (that was actually a shot that turned into an alley-oop). Take the points and watch TCU battle for a victory. This team did beat Air Force and Wyoming in 2 of its last 3 games. Prediction: 63-62 TCU!

B. Anthony
(80-60-1 ytd)

Monday, March 05, 2007

Championship Week

B. Anthony is like a kid in a candy store for another week. There will be some closely contested games this week, and we will start slow. By the end of the week, there will be several games going, all day long, so the picks will likely increase. For now we will just make a few.

Santa Clara +3.5 vs Gonzaga. The story lines behind this game run deep, but the simple truth is, Santa Clara will score more baskets close to the hoop and get more rebounds. The big men will create a few extra looks. And, if and when they continue to knock down the 3 pointers; they won't only keep this close, they will win!

VCU -3.5 vs George Mason. This run has to come to an end. I know this team knows how to win big games, based on last year and the last few days, but they are tired. VCU is a tournament team, regardless, but they want this league title. They have had a great year, and really are the only team out of this league who held it together to earn a tournament title, and a good seed. Drexel, Hofstra, and ODU are likely out after a poor showing in the tournament.

B. Anthony
(Updated numbers, with correction: 79-59-1)

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Get well Sunday

DUKE +10 @ North Carolina
All signs point to a North Carolina blowout. Take Duke

FLORIDA -8.5 vs. Kentucky
At some point, Florida starts playing like Florida again. Today is the day.

BOSTON COLLEGE +7 @ Georgia Tech
This game means a lot to Ga Tech and very little to BC. Money is going opposite of his picks today, so you won’t have to.

VIRGINIA TECH -6.5 vs. Clemson
Va Tech will be ready to go after a humiliating loss to Virginia the other night.

OLD DOMINION -4.5 vs. George Mason
George Mason was such an entertaining story last year. Not so much this year.