Thursday, September 04, 2008

Week 1

“It's a marathon, not a campus streak.”

This was a quote from Coach in reference to a pool that I entered, and won the first week with a showing of 13-2. It is a simple pool, where you pick the winner (no spreads) of a selected number of games. I know that I was extremely lucky to come out with a 13-2 mark and I fully expect to get 3-12 this week too based on the gambling gods laws. However, B. Anthony said I should gloat about this, which got me thinking.

I am going to publish my picks and thoughts for my pools this year each week, including a “survivor” pool, which I plan on winning. In addition if I see any weekly Money makers, college or pro, I will highlight them here. I intend to hook up a web cam and give the viewers an inside look at the detail that Money goes through to make these fantastic picks. I smell a movie deal coming. Worst case scenario, a guest appearance on Nickelodeon’s iCarly TV show.

Navy @ Ball St – pick Ball State
Georgia Tech @ Boston College – pick Boston College
BYU @ Washington (the Willingham Swan-song game) – pick Washington
Air Force @ Wyoming – pick Air Force
West Virginia @ E. Carolina – pick West Va
Northwestern @ Duke – pick Northwestern
Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - pick Western Michigan
Rice @ Memphis pick - Memphis
Texas Tech @ Nevada – pick Texas Tech
Stanford @ Arizona St. – pick Arizona St
Minnesota @ Bowling Green –pick Bowling Green
Cal @ Washington St. – pick CAL
Texas A&M @ New Mexico St. – pick New Mexico
Mississippi @ Wake Forest pick Wake Forest
Akron @ Syracuse – pick Akron
San Diego St @ Notre Dame ___2______pts only

A few thoughts on this week’s games, or the ones selected. This is an awful selection of games. I don’t know where the Coach gets these games, but I could do without Rice and Akron games in the future. Pop quiz, what are the mascots of those teams? The spreads of these game, although not used in this pool are really high for most of these games, meaning they should not be close. I am going with my upset pick of Washington over BYU this week. This game will be the beginning of the end of Willingham’s coaching career at UW, if they lose and the players know it. I bet they pull this one off at home.

Survivor pick has to be the Patriots. For those of you that don’t know the rules of this pool, you have to pick a weekly NFL winner each week and you can’t pick the same team twice. Sounds simple but it is not. My philosophy is to stay in the game each week and make the tough choices when you have to, if you are still playing in week 10. I try to choose home teams only and teams that are favored by more than a touchdown (6 points) if possible.

That makes the possible choices for this week;
KC @ New England
Houston @ Pittsburgh
St. Louis @ Philly
Carolina @ San Diego
Chicago @ Indianapolis

For me, this choice is simple. You have to take the Patriots. KC is awful and there is almost no way the Chiefs can/will win this. Maybe Brady breaks up with his girlfriend and is totally depressed and throws 5 picks, or maybe he dies, but aside from that, the Patriots win. I think Houston will beat Pittsburgh, so I would not touch that game. A case could be made for taking Philly, SD or Indy, but I find more risk in those picks and would not encourage it week 1. One of those 3 teams (Philly, SD or Indy) will lose. It always happens. My only problem with taking the Patriots week 1 is that my Dad will likely take the Patriots and he along with my brother (he usually does two and one of them goes out the first week) are the kiss of death. Maybe I should warn Tom Brady about his impending death or break up?

Illegal Offshore Betting!


The huskies win this game for Rudy/Gipper/Matt Foley and all other motivational tactics to help Willingham keep his job.

OREGON STATE +16.5 @ Penn State
Nice Beaver!

ARIZONA STATE -14 vs. Stanford
I am not totally sold on ASU. Even less impressed with Stanford.


MIAMI +3 vs. Jets
The Anti-Favre play. I love him, but so does the gambling public.

TEXANS +6.5 @ Pittsburgh
The Texans went 8-8 last year and rarely had their best players, Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson on the field together. They are healthy now and this will be a shootout. Texans wins.

49ERS +2.5 vs. Arizona
I am on record stating I will take the under of 5.5 wins for the Niners. Consider this one of the 5.5 wins. Warner is the wrong choice and is too slow for this speedy Niners defense who wins this home opener.

If you feel like getting action on the first NFL game tonite, feel free to take the GIANTS -3.5 vs. the Redskins. I don't love the game but will be watching this over the Republican convention. The Giants will outdraw McCain. Sad fact for our country, but the real show was last night with the Palin introduction.


Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Football thoughts for the 2008 season

I know I am a little late, considering the college football season officially started this past weekend, but the NFL has not started yet. I figured I would put out one post commenting on both sports. The thing I like most about writing these posts before the season starts are the predictions to see how bad or good or Money I was. Here we go.

Not buying in the NFL: Browns (tough schedule), Redskins and the Giants. None of these teams will make the playoffs. To a lesser degree, I am not buying the Cowboys, Patriots or Colts. I think all of them will be good, but I think both Brady and Peyton are/will get hurt and once they go down, the wheels fall off. The cowboys will have a fine season, but will fall short of expectations.

The Niners will be tough and boring to watch. It should make for getting good free tickets throughout the year.

Mike Nolan cannot win. If they succeed, Martz will get the credit. If they suck, he will be fired. I was never a fan of Alex Smith, but at least he provided hope for the future. JT O’Sullivan provides nothing. He is not a franchise QB. He is just delaying the development of the team.

Over/under on the Niners. Money sets the line at 5.5 and I will take the under.

Sign me up for the Jets, Saints, and Eagles, all of which make the playoffs. The dolphins will be much better with Pennington and Parcells. The Raiders will be better than last year.

Division winners:
AFC - Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars, Chargers
NFC – Eagles, Packers, Saints, Seahawks

Superbowl – Jaguars over Eagles

Money Players;
QBs; I love Romo. I am calling for 38 TDs. Brees should be right behind him. The saints are going to explode on offense. Welcome to the big time Matt Schaub.

RBs: Steven Jackson will finally put it all together, although I say this every year. I like Marshawn Lynch and Marion Barber too. Selvin Young will succeed in Denver and your rookie of the year is Chris Johnson of Tennessee that only has to beat out big, fat LenDale White. In fact, all the rookie RBs will make significant contributions near the latter half of the year; Jonathan Stewart, Kevin Smith, Matt Forte, Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Ray Rice, Slaton and even Jamaal Charles, when Larry Johnson gets hurt. I guess I need to include McFadden, whom I think will be terrific too. Raiders will always be playing from behind though.

WRs: There are some great Money WRs. Moss, TO, Wayne and Edwards are all top notch. I will also include Colston and Andre Johnson in this group as well. Next group of WRs include Bad Boy Brandon Marshall of Denver, Big Play Santonio Holmes (move over Torry Holt), Jerricho Cotchery who has a big year under Favre and Calvin Johnson who breaks out in a big way this year in Detroit. Keep an eye on under the radar guys like Anthony Gonzalez of the colts, who will do well when Harrison gets hurts again soon. Ted Ginn is a guy I would take a flier on and watch out for Cal Bear DeSean Jackson who will make some plays among a less than distinguished group of WRs.

Crap’d out;

QBs; Wow, Leinert has really fallen down. Eli will go back to being insignificant. Carson Palmer, or any Bengal for that matter will be really bad this year.

RBs; Adrian Peterson is great, but fragile and won’t play a full year. Why does anyone think Frank Gore will be good just because Martz is in town? Larry Johnson is finished.

WRs; I don’t like the Az WRs because I don’t think Warner will play all year and the QB situation will be very unstable all year. Chad Johnson is really funny, but not improving and on the decline.

Cubs will not win the World Series, they probably won’t get there. Diamondbacks over Anaheim.

Is there anything more annoying in sports than the customized eye black with messages on them? Reggie Bush put his area code, which was clever. Now everyone is getting into it and putting messages to their Mother or girlfriend, or life partner or whoever. Enough already.

College Football;

I think Georgia has the most talented team, but there is no way they get through their schedule and end up playing in the championship game. In fact, no SEC team will do it. Their schedules are too tough. No on GA, FLA or LSU and Prop 13. I give Auburn the best chance of coming out of the SEC game to play in the title game, but I would not count on it.

This is not my top ten season ending poll, but these are the teams that I like and I think will be at the top when the season ends; USC, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas Tech, BYU, Penn state.

I think Ohio State will be at the top, even after getting their butts kicked by USC, because their schedule is so weak. GA, Fla and LSU are all talented teams, but each will end up with at least 2 losses.

Teams like TCU, Fresno State, Utah, North Carolina and Uconn could all have better records than the above mentioned SEC teams.

Missouri wins it all.

Cal goes 8-4 and wins a trip to the Emerald Bowl. I went to every game last year, I am hopeful that I get to three this year. Too many kid soccer games this year!