Thursday, September 25, 2008

Week 4

Money fell down last week, recording a 6 in my weekly straight up pool. I need to get my act together. However, I did pick some good NFL games, and managed to go above .500 in college as well. You can’t win them all. Here are my picks for this week. This is actually a pretty good slate of games; no akron or buffalo picks thank goodness.

CCR 43
Coach 43
JB 43
T Bone 42
Fifty Cent 40

Money has 38

SMU @ Tulane - pick Tulane
UCONN @ Louisville - pick Louisville
New Mexico @ New Mexico St. – pick New Mexico St.
Stanford @ Washington – pick Stanford
Purdue @ Notre Dame – pick Notre Dame
Alabama @ Georgia – pick Georgia
Wisconsin @ Michigan – pick Michigan
Fresno St. @ UCLA – pick Fresno St.
Illinois @ Penn St. – pick Penn St.
Tennessee @ Auburn – pick Auburn
Colorado @ Florida St. - pick Florida St.
Nevada @ UNLV – pick Nevada
Oregon @ Washington St. – pick Oregon
South Florida @ NC State – pick South Florida
Michigan St. @ Indiana – pick Michigan St.
San Jose St. @ Hawaii___3____pts

In case you have not noticed the last entry for this pool is the tie breaker for the weekly winner where in case of a tie, the person who picks closest to the point total wins. But, since you get nothing for winning the week, I mock it, like I do everything in else in life.

Here are some thoughts on the above games. I really like Louisville on Friday to cover, big time. I don’t think this game will be close. Uconn can run, but Louisville can stop it. UL will certainly remember the whooping that occurred last year and have circled this game. Throw in the home field advantage and I feel this one will not be close. Notre Dame will beat Purdue at home. No shame in losing on the road to Michigan State last week. I am not a fan of Saban. I think he team is also a bit overrated right now as well. This is a young team. These guys will not be able to go toe to toe with UGA. I suppose I am saying that I like Michigan +6 as well if I am picking them to win. I typically pick a few games each week inconsistent with the spread and this is one of them. I am not a big fan of Michigan this year, as they will struggle with the new system and coach, however it is tough to ignore that Wisconsin has not won in the Big House since 1965. Go Blue. UCLA is a very bad team, same with their buddy Tennessee. I am not impressed with Florida state, but Colorado is doing it with smoke and mirrors. Oregon and WSU both have quarterback issues, but the ducks have far superior athletes and can run the ball.

College bets

LOUISVILLE -3.5 vs. Uconn
OREGON -21 @ Washington state
AUBURN -7 vs. Tennessee
TCU +18 @ Oklahoma - TCU is fast and good. They have the best defense in the country.

My survivor pick last week, giants, made me sweat. In fact, the whole pool almost was shut down with New England losing at home to Miami and Buffalo needing a last second field goal to win. It really amazes me how hard this pool is. Just pick one winner each week to win. That’s it. Thus far, I have taken New England, Arizona and NYG. Here are the choices for the week.

Denver @ KC
Houston @ Jax
SF @ New Orleans
Atlanta @ Carolina
Buffalo @ St. Louis
Washington @ Dallas

I eliminate the road teams straight away, which means Buffalo and Denver are out. I really hope a lot of people pick Denver because I think this is a game they can lose. Their defense is horrible. Cutler and the offense are terrific, but this is a rivalry game and it would not surprise me to see KC win. Nice win for Jax last week, keeping their season and my superbowl pick alive, but I need to see more from them before endorsing them again. New Orleans will be without Shockey and Colston. Who will Brees throw to? This game will be a dogfight. Stay away from the Saints.

That leaves Carolina and Dallas. At this point, it is still early and you want to stay alive. Don’t try and get too cute here. They both probably win, but Dallas is the safer play. Washington will be without Jason Taylor and the cowboys offense will be too tough. Santana Moss and his late game heroics from last year are on my mind, but I am sure the cowboys are aware of this as well. I am taking the Cowboys this week.

NFL picks

KANSAS CITY +10 vs. Denver
SAN FRANCISCO +6 @ New Orleans
TITANS -3.5 vs. Minnesota



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