Friday, March 28, 2008


Wow, UCLA looks awful right now, don’t they? There are two schools of thought here. They are a team of destiny and are capable of winning all types of games; fast paced, slow defensive battles, ugly turnover games that they want to forget. Or they are picking the wrong time to suck and when they play someone good they will lose. I am now leaning towards option 2. Collison (aside from last night) has been playing great and Kevin Love is terrific, but the rest of the team, namely Shipp needs to play an impact role, starting now if they expect to win the tournament. The early UCLA line opened up at -8.5 and I think it has now settled in at -6.

Dick Vitale said last night that he believes UCLA will be focused and take care of business tomorrow and get to the Final Four. I don’t feel the same way. Starting with the lucky win vs. Stanford and the last second shot from Shipp to beat Cal, they have really been struggling.

I know I picked UCLA to win it all prior to the tournament, but the winner is coming out of the East or Midwest bracket; Kansas, UNC or Louisville.

Friday’s picks

4:10 pm
WISCONSIN -5.5 vs. Davidson
I like Stephen Curry. I like his hot mom even more, but they won their national championship last weekend by getting to the sweet 16. That was their goal at the beginning of the season.

4:30 pm
STANFORD +2 vs. Texas
This is the game I am most worried about. These teams are evenly matched but have totally different strengths. I am picking Stanford based on the Lopez twins playing 32 minutes together on the floor and staying out of foul trouble, Goods and Hill making 15 points collectively and Augustin, who has been struggling of late to not be completely effective. Over the last three games, Augustin has shot just 41 FG% from the floor, and scored an average of 12.7 points, as compared with his seasonal averages of 51.8 FG% and 19.2 ppg.

If you disagree with my assumptions here then bet Texas.

6:40 pm
KANSAS -12.5 vs. Villanova
Villanova is vulnerable on the perimeter and their strength is stealing the ball from their opponents. KU has a good backcourt and will not be impacted by this. I will take the over 144.5 in this game as well, as Nova will be shooting a ton of threes.

MICHIGAN STATE +5 vs. Memphis
Free throws won’t cost Memphis this game, but their misses will affect the spread. If both Raymar Morgan and Drew Neitzel have a good game, then an upset is possible.



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