Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Countdown to Madness

B. Anthony must echo Money's sentiments about March. Conference tournaments start today in the Horizon league, and my anxiety is rising. This is a time to really warm into the upcoming frenzy, and there will opportunities to find some winners. I won't shave for work, but I never do. However, I will be glued to my computer as lines change and injuries are reported.

The key, which I have never been able to follow, is not to bet every game!!! There will be some clear favorable match-ups for underdogs, and there will always be 3-4 games a day where there is great "half-time line value". A big favorite will be down or close at half. The original lines are never that far off. So when you find a 15 point favorite tied at half, they will cover that 8-9 point second half line!!!

Let's look at some winners for today.

Cleveland St. -16 vs Detroit. Opening round of the Horizon League tourney. Cleveland St. was expected to win the league this year. They finished 3rd and now need to win the tourney to make the dance. Detroit is last in the league and ready to mail it in. This game is hosted by Cleveland St. and their suffocating defense will hold Detroit under 50. 71-46. Easy cover!

Florida St. +12.5 vs Duke. Florida St. has some very talented guards and will get to the basket consistently versus Dukes over zealous pressure. It doesn't matter how hard you slap the floor if you can't stay in front of your man. If Paulus plays more than 10 minutes, which he always does, this game will be close. Additionally, Duke is traveling to UNC this weekend, they can't help but look ahead.

Georgetown -6 vs St. John's. Georgetown is going to continue the strong defense they showed against Villanova. They still have a chance to make some noise. St. John's decided not to play against Syracuse the last time out, and I think it happens again.

Indiana + 14 vs Michigan St. I think this Indiana team would be a national Champion in Division III ball. However, they have a lot of pride and pretty much work the clock down every possession. Michigan St. is extremely talented, but they are likely to sleep walk through this game to a 9-11 point victory. They clinched at Illinois on Sunday, and they are slightly hungover from the celebration.

Good Luck,

B. Anthony


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