Thursday, December 27, 2007

Money's Anti-public bets

As some of you have probably noticed, the really obvious bets have not come in. Jay Webb and Money were big on BYU. This was my favorite bet. They should have lost, but did not cover, so in my mind, screw 'em. 

So what has been the trend thus far? Betting against the public, or in other words, you. The public does not know anything, and there have been several bets where the public is 70-80% on one team, which is way to high and immediate sign to go the other way. Past examples of this thus far, have been BYU, Boise State and Purdue. All of these teams were at least 70% on the side of the favorites.

In fact, there are a couple of games that I picked at the beginning, that I would recommend going the other way, Michigan +10.5 being the most obvious one.

With this new information, I give you my Anti Jay Webb picks. These picks are all based on public betting, and we should all go the other way. 

MICHIGAN STATE +4 - 70% on BC. I know there are some suspended players on MSU, and tough to bet against a team led by Ryan, but this is what everybody else is thinking.
BALL STATE +10 - 80% on Rutgers. Can you say lock?
KANSAS +3.5 -70% on Va Tech. Not a fan of the Jayhawks weak schedule, but I will be picking them.
CLEMSON -2.5 - 70% on Auburn. This one surprises me, but I will gladly take a small favorite here.
MICHIGAN +10.5 - 75% on Florida. I have done a 360 (as Jason Kidd once said) on this one and I am now a big Michigan fan. They do have the athletes to keep this close.

Two other games, West Va +7.5 (85% on OU) and Florida state +10 (85% on Kentucky) are huge mismatches on the public meter, but the teams have major issues that concern me; motivation and suspensions. I probably stay away, but we probably should take Florida state and West Va.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Jay Webb said...

that's right Money...screw BYU. I didn't see the first half, but Barry Danner tells me that they fumbled on their own 2 with 10 seconds left in half instead of taking a knee to give UCLA the miracle cover TD.
I like your "anti" strategy for the upcoming games.

No Warriors picks from Money and B Anthony this year?

12:10 PM  

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