Thursday, February 15, 2007

Preparing for NIT and NCAA- "Dog Thursday"

As B. Anthony scanned the computer for scores last night, he found himself focusing on the Colonial League and Horizon League. For most, this would be uncommon, for B. it is just preparation and research.

There are 4 solid teams in the Colonial, but they won't all be Dancing in March. However, on the Wednesday before the Dance begins, they will be playing an underachieving team from the Big Ten or Pac-10 in the NIT, and will be getting 8 points. B. Anthony will then strike, and when everyone in the casino thinks they have a lock, we will be on the other side. There is a method behind the madness.

Speaking of methods, some of my loyal readers have been wondering when is it time to "go opposite"? B. Anthony has been hot, and eventually he may cool down, but not yet. The "Opposite" method refers to the utter desperation and the demise of a gambler. When every pick you make is wrong you then start trying to find the game you like most, and go against it. If you are this type of player, my thought is, "look at my plays, and if you think they are no good, or you know nothing about them, that is your pick!" I do periodically go opposite on myself, but this has not been successful lately. My last pick was UCLA over USC when I had been dead set on USC for 2 days. Just one mistake.

Back to the idea of watching a computer. How many times can someone refresh the screen in 30 seconds, and what does your wife or girlfriend think about it? B. Anthony was without cable for a couple days, and his Internet connection was smoking from the many refreshes. Please feel free to comment if you know of the website with the most frequent updates. CBSsportsline has been lacking, yahoo sports is okay. B. Anthony found that aolsports was pretty good with its frequency of updates and the number of games that actually provided a game-log! These are very important factors, because we all know that the real fun comes in suffering through every possession of every game! One click at a time!

On to Thursday's Board: As you see in the title, today will be a dog day, as will also be the case on March 15th, the greatest day of the year.

I got a Feeling Games:

Manhattan +10 vs Marist: Marist is a good team, consistently a winner with a senior laden team and four players averaging double digits. However, only twice in their last 10 games have they won by double digits. Both games against Iona (1-26). Manhattan is traditionally strong and beat Marist at home. I like the points.

Providence+8 vs Notre Dame: Notre Dame is a good home team, but Providence travels well. They have not lost bad double digits in quite a while, and they will battle Notre Dame to the bitter end. Again cheer for the Dog.

Pac 10 Picks: I will play all four, because, well, because I am a junkie!

USC +7 vs Arizona: Arizona is threatening to play better, but B. Anthony has sources close to this team. Marcus Williams is still a me first player and causing problems in the locker room, (see earlier suspension) and Mustafa Shakur has never lived up to his hype and is not the point guard leader that is needed here. USC is hungry and a good team. You can thank Tim Floyd for this. He has brought tough defense and more dirty recruiting to SC. Take the points, they may even win outright!

So much for dogs:

UCLA - 11.5 vs ASU. The plucky Devils have been competing well at home, and 11.5 points is a lot, but UCLA is mad, they have their point guard back, and according to all the numbers I can see and crunch, they are 19 points better than ASU. This line is low because UCLA had a close game with ASU before, and this may be a look ahead game to Arizona, but I don't buy it. Arizona is not good enough that UCLA has to look ahead. They need to win every game, and win some of them big if they want to earn the #1 seed in the West. Don't think Ben Howland doesn't know this.

Oregon -3 vs Cal. The Ducks have been struggling as B. Anthony predicted. They are still rated too highly, but they are a dancing team, and they know they have to get at least 1 win on this road trip. The will put everything they have into the first game, and although the Bears will battle for a while. They will succumb to pressure, make turnovers down the stretch and lose by 6-9 points. Ducks will quack their way to an ugly win

Stanford -13.5 vs Oregon State. B. Anthony is "going opposite" on this one. Money and B. discussed this game, as Money will be in attendance. Here is the deal. Goods, the only shooter for Stanford, is out. Oregon State will likely pack it in a zone and dare the Cardinal to beat them. We saw this against Gonzaga, and it was effective because Fred Washington is useless vs a zone and Mitch Johnson shoots like a 3rd grader from the hip and full body lean!

So the thought should be, take the points. However, the big Twinkies will just get the boards and lay them back in. Stanford's defense will be suffocating, and they need this game. Like Oregon, they need to get at least 1 win this weekend, and they fear the speed of the Ducks. Stanford will come out strong, and finish strong. This line should be 16, and even though I hate Stanford and expect the zone to slow them down, I am going Opposite and taking the Tree!


B. Anthony (P.S. If the lines move during the day, I will update them.)

( Also, if you are watching, 44-28-1 since Jan 17th B. Anthony will keep a running total for you. 18% ROA)


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